Profitability Analysis
Event-level and weekly profitability analysis framework, current data blindness, and planned reporting via Humphrey Intelligence App.
Current State: Data Blindness
Critical gap: Pride cannot calculate event-level or even weekly P&L reliably. Reasons:
- No event coding in Xero: Expenses (performer, security, stock) recorded globally; not linked to specific events
- No cost allocation: Rent, wages, utilities not allocated to individual events
- No TryBooking-to-Xero link: Revenue by event exists in TryBooking; expenses exist in Xero; no mechanism to join them
- Attendance data loss: TryBooking prints attendance lists; they are discarded (data lost)
- Manual P&L: Monthly P&L is generated month-end from Xero totals; no intra-month or event-level detail
Consequence: Emily Rose cannot distinguish profitable events from loss-making ones. Programming decisions are intuitive, not data-informed. See Programming Model.
Revenue Analysis
Total FY26 YTD revenue (partial, as of Mar 2026):
- Square Sales: ~$871k
- TryBooking Revenue: ~$65k ($29.3k GST + $35.7k non-GST)
- Other Sales: ~$53k
- Total estimated: ~$989k YTD (9 months)
Weekly revenue trend (from memory, Mar 2026):
- Average: $20,000–$25,000/week
- Target: $25,000–$30,000/week (breakeven, revised upward Apr 2026)
- FY23 baseline: $38,500/week (nearly 50% decline)
By night:
- Wednesday: $1,500 (target)
- Thursday: $2,500 (target; highly variable by programming)
- Friday: $6,000 (Drag Bingo driver; reliable)
- Saturday: $15,000 (target; currently ~$10,000 average, ranging $5k–$15k)
Cost Analysis
Fixed weekly costs:
- Performers: ~$4,000 (varies by event, fixed contractual minimums)
- Staff wages: ~$7,000 (payroll, Deputy-tracked)
- Security: ~$2,000 (mandatory per licence, ~$104k/year)
- Stock (liquor): $6,000–$7,000 (varies with attendance)
- Rent: ~$1,700 (fixed, weekly)
- Total: ~$20,700–$21,700/week minimum
Variable costs per event:
- Performer fees above standard rate
- Additional security if over-capacity
- Promotional costs (staff time, not separately tracked)
Event-Level P&L: The Gap
What we need:
Event: Drag Bingo Friday 14 Mar 2026
Revenue:
Ticket sales (TryBooking): $2,100 (105 tix @ $20)
Bar sales (Square): $4,500
Total revenue: $6,600
Costs:
Performer fee: -$1,000
Security (allocated): -$500
Stock cost (allocated): -$1,800
Marginal labour (allocated): -$800
Total costs: -$4,100
Profit: $2,500
Margin: 37.9%
Current reality: These numbers do not exist. Revenue is visible in TryBooking; costs are visible in Xero; but they are not linked or compared.
Weekly Profitability
Estimated weekly P&L (indicative, not verified):
Revenue (4 events): $25,000
Cost of goods (stock): -$7,000
Performer fees: -$4,000
Security: -$2,000
Wages: -$7,000
Rent: -$1,700
Other: -$2,000
Net profit/loss: +$1,300 (or -$700 if lower revenue)
Issue: Not calculated reliably. Mat/bookkeeper estimate weekly surplus/deficit; actual calculation delayed until month-end Xero reconciliation.
Profitability Drivers
Factors affecting event profitability:
- Attendance: More tickets = higher revenue. Repeat attendance reduces customer acquisition cost.
- Bar spend per customer: Varies by event type (drag audiences may spend more than DJ audiences).
- Performer cost: Negotiable; flagship events (Drag Bingo) command higher rates. New artists lower cost but may draw smaller crowds.
- Promotion efficiency: Cost-per-acquisition varies by channel (Instagram organic vs paid ads).
- Execution cost: Security, labour vary by event type and expected attendance.
Currently not analysed: Cannot rank which event type (drag vs DJ), which night (Friday vs Saturday), which promotion channel is most profitable.
Planned Solution: Humphrey Intelligence App
Deliverable: Real-time event-level and weekly P&L reporting
Scope:
- Query Square transactions by TryBooking event code → revenue by event
- Query Xero performer invoices (date-parsed) → cost by event
- Query Xero security bills (date-matched) → security cost by event
- Allocate labour cost (from Deputy, if integrated) → labour cost by event
- Calculate profit, margin, and return on promotional spend per event
- Trend analysis (is Drag Bingo margin declining over time?)
- Customer analytics (repeat attendance, lifetime value by event type)
Timeline: Workstream 3, Sprints 3–4 (estimated delivery June 2026)
Usage: Emily and Mat use event P&L to optimise programming mix, pricing, and performer fee negotiations.
Strategic Implications
Profitability analysis enables:
- Programming optimisation: Shift mix toward high-margin event types
- Pricing optimisation: Increase ticket price for high-demand events
- Cost negotiation: Reduce performer or security costs where margins are thin
- Customer focus: Allocate promotion budget to highest-lifetime-value customer segments
- Strategic planning: Quantify Saturday collapse and validate Saturday recovery strategy
Viability Thresholds
Added April 2026 per Pride Venue Benchmarks Research.
Benchmarking analysis provides concrete EBITDA targets for Pride’s current cost structure:
| Target | Annual Revenue | Weekly Average | Uplift from $1M |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breakeven (0% EBITDA) | $1.25M | $25,000–$30,000 | +25% |
| Viable (10% EBITDA) | $1.4M | $26,900 | +40% |
| Strong (15% EBITDA) | $1.55M | $29,800 | +55% |
These targets are achievable within the Melbourne market — broker listings show 200–350 cap venues trading at $1.04M–$1.82M, and the City of Melbourne NTE average for “Drink” venues is $1.73M.
Revenue vs Cost Framing
The benchmarking analysis concludes that Pride’s individual cost lines are not bloated — the challenge is insufficient revenue. Total stated weekly fixed costs of $21,200 consume 110% of average weekly revenue ($19,231). For the business to break even weekly, revenue needs to be $25,000–$30,000/week (revised threshold; see Cash Forecasting), accounting for additional costs (water, rates, loan repayments, SaaS) not captured in the original breakdown.
This reframes the strategic priority: cost reduction (primarily security via Licence Reclassification) buys survival time, but revenue growth is the structural solution. The Theatre Restaurant Model, Event Pricing Benchmarks, and Revenue Diversification strategies are the primary revenue levers.
Achievability Analysis: Path to $1.4M
Added April 2026 per Pride Venue Benchmarks Research and Venue Revenue Optimisation Research.
The viability threshold ($1.4M for 10% EBITDA) requires a +40% revenue uplift from $1M. The question is: what combination of revenue initiatives gets there?
| Initiative | Estimated Annual Uplift | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Kitchen food revenue | ~$120k–$180k | In planning (Food Menu Strategy) |
| Kitchen bar uplift (dwell time) | ~$134k | Enabled by kitchen |
| Sunday drag brunch/market | ~$144k–$240k (Phase 3) | In planning (Sunday Market and Drag Brunch) |
| Tiered pricing uplift ($5 avg increase) | ~$156k | Ready to implement |
| Double-programming (Fri/Sat) | ~$100k–$200k | Requires 60-min format adoption |
| VIP table packages | ~$50k–$100k | Ready to implement |
| Security cost elimination (licence) | ~$104k–$307k (cost saving) | Application ready |
Combined potential: $808k–$1,367k uplift — more than sufficient to reach $1.4M even at conservative estimates. The achievability is confirmed by Melbourne comparable venues (200–350 cap) trading at $1.04M–$1.82M (broker listings).
Critical sequencing: Kitchen and licence reclassification are enabling conditions for the largest uplift items. Pricing and VIP packages can be implemented immediately.
Event-Type Profitability
Event-type margin profiling has not yet been done and is required for programming optimisation. Pride cannot currently distinguish which event types (drag vs DJ vs cabaret vs comedy) generate the highest contribution margin. The Humphrey Intelligence App (Workstream 3, estimated June 2026) will deliver event-level P&L reporting. Until then, programming decisions remain intuition-based rather than data-driven.
Indicative signals from market data: drag brunch/dinner ($60–$100/pp bundled) and touring drag acts ($25–$75 GA, $150+ VIP) have the highest revenue-per-head ceiling. Free-entry DJ/club nights have the lowest margin but may serve community-access and audience-development functions. See Event Pricing Benchmarks for per-event revenue modelling.
Related Pages
- Trading Pattern — revenue concentration and customer model
- Financial Reporting — monthly and annual P&L reporting
- Humphrey Intelligence App — event P&L reporting platform
- Programming Model — data-informed programming decisions
- Events and Programming — event portfolio and mix
- Chart of Accounts — Xero structure for cost allocation